As Brazil heads into a politically charged stretch, Monique Greco Natal from Itaú BBA, the No. 1 ranked Oil & Gas analyst, was asked which call she would stand behind even if it were unpopular, she believes: "That the upcoming political events in Brazil should have a limited impact on the Petrobras story, and that we are unlikely to see major changes to the company's underlying fundamentals or internal governance."

It's a position built on a simple discipline: "By sticking to the fundamentals." As she puts it, "In a year marked by geopolitical volatility in global markets and election-related noise in Brazil, you have to be able to see through the fog and keep a clear view of what really matters." Every headline gets the same test: "Will this change the company's production, volumes, structural profitability, or capital allocation strategy? If not, either let it go or recognize that it is, at most, a speculative opportunity."

The same lens shapes what she thinks the market is missing: "Petrobras' impressive operational evolution. Over the past few years, the company has increased production by more than 20%, strengthening its exposure to the oil market and reinforcing its fundamentals beyond what investors seem to appreciate."

She also sees a structural challenge for investors outside Brazil. "In my view, global investors, simply because they are not on the ground, often find it harder to see through the fog of news flow and volatility and focus on what is actually driving the stories here. Part of our job as sell-side analysts is to help clear that view and keep the focus on the fundamentals."

Her advice to her younger self is about mindset rather than markets: "Be comfortable with the fact that you won't know everything and won't have all the answers. That's exactly what will make you work harder and keep learning," and she adds that the compounding effect of that tends to matter more than people realize.