During a year of unprecedented geopolitical pressures and technological transformations, seven analysts have earned their first No. 1 ranking in Extel’s annual All-America Research Team survey.

They represent a myriad of sectors and firms: BofA Securities is the only firm to have two analysts recognized—for thematic research and convertible bonds—alongside other analysts from Citi, Jefferies, J.P. Morgan, UBS, and Wolfe Research.

But regardless of where they sit and what they cover, 2025 was the year of geopolitics. “Geopolitics have proven to be as unpredictable as ever—the dramatic shifts in U.S. policy, international wars, and struggles to be the global leader in the emerging AI boom have whipsawed assets across the investment spectrum, from commodities to equities to crypto,” summed up one.

Said another one: “We believe that the tech revolution we are seeing—AI, computing and the race for breakthroughs—is dominating everything we see geopolitically. It’s a tech arms race, which is the key driver we are seeing geopolitically, including through globalization, re-shoring, trade wars and tariffs, resources, immigration and geopolitical interest map.”

Read on to learn how some of the new No. 1 analysts navigated this year and what they’ve learned from their best—and worst—calls. 

What’s the best call you ever made?

We called the AI revolution very early, before ChatGPT. AI has been one of the most important mega trends we followed for a while. In December 2022, when ChatGPT was released we understood right away this is a pivotal moment and we started to research the technology and its impact right away. We were the first to publish this kind of research (“Me, myself and AI”) and most readers had no idea what is going on and did not understand this was the day the world has changed. And we are heading into another ChatGPT moment very soon… with quantum computing. 
 
What’s the worst call you ever made?

Gen Z is another very important mega trend we have followed since 2019, highlighting this will be the most transformational generation in human history and the first generation to be born into an online world. What we failed to understand at first is how the older generations (millennials, Gen X, and even baby boomers) would become more like Gen Z, and adopting to them, and not the other way around. Hence the impact of Gen Z goes way and beyond its actual size in the population or its direct accumulated wealth. 
 
How are geopolitical factors impacting your sector?

Yes! This is key for our analysis. Mega trends by definition are themes that will change the world, good or bad, and here to stay. We believe that the tech revolution we are seeing—AI, computing and the race for breakthroughs—is dominating everything we see geopolitically. It’s a tech arms race, which is the key driver we are seeing geopolitically, including through globalization, re-shoring, trade wars and tariffs, resources, immigration and geopolitical interest map. 
 
What makes an all-star analyst in 2025?

Very simple. To understand something very simple. We live in a world that is accelerating in warp-speed. All the economic doctrines, the theories, the traditional models, the valuation method, are challenged in this new world, and to some extent need all to be revised, and replaced. We cannot follow the old models anymore because they are all linear models in an exponential world! 

What’s the best call you ever made?

The best call I’ve made was to upgrade Ecolab (ECL) to Buy in mid-2022. This was at a point where Ecolab had not fully recovered volumes from COVID-related shutdowns, as consumer travel was not yet back in full swing, and the company was getting hit with record raw material inflation. In mid-2022, the market wasn't pricing in a recovery in either of these factors, and we viewed that as a good opportunity to recommend buying one of the highest quality companies in our coverage.

At the time, we saw Ecolab’s pricing starting to inflect higher, which we thought would more than recover the higher raw material costs over the next 1-2 years. We built on this analysis with detailed price/cost trackers which gave us confidence that margins would expand as raw materials started to fall. Concurrently, we saw a tighter labor market as supportive for increased utilization of Ecolab’s solutions in hotels/restaurants, while customers on the Industrial side were using more of Ecolab's services to address higher energy costs.

Our forward estimates incorporating these assumptions became much higher than consensus and we decided to upgrade the stock. Our thesis ultimately proved correct as pricing moved to higher levels, volumes improved, and Ecolab emerged stronger from that experience. Over the next 2 years, Ecolab grew earnings above normal and the stock was up ~70%. The company started using more data to improve customer operations, their own cost base, and being more nimble on the pricing front.
 
What’s the worst call you ever made?

The worst call I've made was upgrading Tronox (TROX) to Buy at the wrong point in the TiO2 commodity cycle. I made this mistake twice, in late 2021 and then in late 2024. Both times were at different points in the commodity cycle, and I've learned lessons from each instance.

In late 2021, we thought the demand recovery in TiO2 and coatings end markets would be more sustainable. If this had played out, it would have led to Tronox achieving targeted cost savings, with the higher earnings base leading to more FCF generation and an improved cash return for investors. Instead, we saw demand peak in mid-2022, which then led to industry destocking, weaker demand, and pricing pressure. That pressure intensified as China property market conditions worsened and China shifted to exporting more TiO2, impacting global markets. We moved off the Buy as conditions weakened, but then we came back to it as a counter consensus call in late 2024. At that point, the stock was declining and volumes remained weaker, but we saw regional duties and tariffs on TiO2 going into place in western markets. We thought we'd see a turn in volumes and pricing as the duties and tariffs were implemented. Instead, the trade barriers weren't put in at a high enough level, volumes did not pick up, pricing has remained challenging, and Tronox also had some specific cost issues.

With commodities, it’s difficult to get the timing right and you can sometimes end up being either early or late in these calls. In the former case, we extrapolated earnings growth of a higher base scenario which was a mistake. In the latter case, we had a basis for a positive inflection, but we were too early and relied on government policies to drive that change which was a risk. Commodity stocks can tend to overshoot in both directions, and in some cases it may make sense to have more evidence on the market turn before getting more or less constructive.
 
How are geopolitical factors impacting your sector?

I cover both the Chemicals and Packaging sectors. Chemicals tend to be more macro impacted, as it is quite a global industry from both a supply and demand perspective. Energy prices matter for inputs and pricing, and demand is impacted by factors ranging from local interest rate policies to global trade patterns. Tariffs have been a shifting factor on the cost side, and are expected to have an as yet unclear impact on demand. Packaging is slightly less impacted, as it is more focused on consumer demand and in-region shipping. Within this framework, we need to have a view on how different regions deal with chemicals oversupply and low earnings. We also need to be sensitive to changes in macro factors from interest rates, consumer spending, industrial production, and frictions in global trade that can lead to short and/or long-term shifts in trade flows. The sector I cover is quite diverse, which means we need to be watching a lot of different factors. So, we've been busy over the last couple of years.
 
What makes an all-star analyst in 2025?

First, we are very responsive to investor questions and demands. We've made a point of being early on emerging debates, and trying to be quantitative on potential impacts. We publish a lot, and believe our views are known and visible across most debated areas. We're not always right, but this has led to more constructive discussions with investors which we think leads to better appreciation of outcomes on both sides. Second, given the amount of uncertainty within the sector, we've relied more heavily on scenario analysis. This allows us to analyze a range of outcomes, and makes us better positioned to implement a view as one scenario starts to become more likely. This also gives investors something to sensitize potential impacts off of, which is helpful when there is no clear-cut solution. Third, over the years we've looked to build up our datasets of higher frequency and alternative data to make us sharper on near term shifts in demand, price, or costs. This has always been important, but more so in a market which is very near term focused outside of the more broad AI-related trades.

What’s the best call you ever made?

The best call I ever made was downgrading CHTR from outperform to neutral in the summer of 2021. We thought the telcos' fixed wireless access (FWA) expansion would depress Charter's growth. CHTR was popular - as a stock it was like the high school sports hero that some kids just follow - and shrugged off my upgrade to rise another 10% that summer before falling by about 70% over the next four years.

What’s the worst call you ever made?

The same CHTR downgrade, because it wasn't bold enough! I should have double-downgraded it to underperform.