Even the most seasoned analysts found something surprising about the sectors they cover in 2025.
From an unexpected merger poised to usher in the first U.S. transcontinental railroad; the threat of significant government intervention in the homebuilding industry; and the unfettered capital inflows into digital infrastructure, there was plenty in their respective sectors to keep this elite trio of analysts on their toes—and catapult them into Extel’s 2025 All-America Research Hall of Fame.
After inducting no one last year, this year’s analysts join a group of only 77 other analysts who have earned a No. 1 ranking ten times or more, which remains a rarefied achievement since the survey was introduced in 1972.
But today’s analysts describe a much different world than even a few years ago. “If you’re doing the same thing today that you were doing five years ago, you’re on the path to irrelevance,” says one.
Nothing illustrates this bifurcation more than the meteoric take-up—or not—of artificial intelligence. For industries like construction, one hall of fame analyst reported that AI remains less conducive to usher in huge transformations.
While other analysts said that the impact of AI is already being realized not only on their individual sectors but also in how they work day to day. Read on to find out which analyst may have even used it to reply to Extel’s own Q&A.
Jonathan Atkin, RBC
Communications Infrastructure
What’s the best call you ever made?
Over the past decade, some of my more successful contrarian calls have come within the datacenter space. Early in the cycle, I recognized that names such as Digital Realty (DLR) in the U.S., GDS Holdings in China, and NEXTDC (NXT) in Australia were positioned to benefit from a fundamental shift in computing demand—first from cloud adoption, and later of course from the accelerating needs of AI workloads. While sentiment at various times was often cautious on valuation or earnings pressures, my conviction in the structural growth drivers in various regions, helped us identify these trends well before consensus did. Our global coverage model has also been helpful in identifying changes in procurement activity at various hyperscalers.
What’s the worst call you’ve ever made?
Toward the beginning of this decade, I correctly identified a multi-year demand surge for towers and mobile data infrastructure, but I underestimated the macro overlay—specifically, the impacts of rising interest rates on trading multiples within the group.
How is AI transforming your sector — and how you work?
AI has expanded broadened my coverage scope. What was once a focused datacenter and digital infrastructure sector is now at the crossroads of multiple disciplines: Internet platforms deploying AI applications, semiconductor and hardware companies building the compute layer, industrial and utility firms enabling power and cooling infrastructure, and software developers driving AI monetization. I now collaborate daily with RBC colleagues across technology, energy, industrial tech, and real estate to understand how these forces interact globally — from chip supply chains in Asia to power-grid constraints in North America and Europe, and sovereign initiatives across all regions. This multidisciplinary coordination is essential to capture the full breadth of the AI infrastructure cycle.
How are geopolitical factors impacting your sector?
Geopolitical dynamics have become a defining variable for the digital infrastructure ecosystem. Cross-border trade flows, supply chain reconfiguration, and regional security considerations now influence everything from the sourcing of AI servers to the construction timelines of hyperscale facilities and power and cooling equipment, as well as the routing of subsea cable systems.
What has surprised you most about this year?
The sheer magnitude and persistence of capital inflows into digital infrastructure continues to surprise—not only from traditional capital pools but an increasing set of private equity sponsors, sovereign wealth funds, and infrastructure platforms seeking long-term exposure to AI-driven compute demand. These investors remain eager to underwrite large-scale projects globally, reflecting confidence in the asset class.
Scott Group, Wolfe Research
Airfreight & Surface Transportation
What’s the best call you’ve ever made?
We’ve had one very big, long-term thesis that the rails are a lot more alike than different. Given that backdrop, it follows that any margin outlier should, over the medium- to long-term, converge toward the industry average. Our strategy has therefore been to recommend the rail stock with the lowest margins, anticipating that it would catch up to its peers over time. At one point it was UNP, then CP, then CSX and then NSC. That’s really been the beauty of the call – it keeps changing. Right now, it’s once again CSX. With a new CEO in place, we see CSX as one of the most compelling stories in the transport sector — a classic margin turnaround with potential M&A upside.
We also have a really unique coverage including U.S. transports, European transports, airlines, truck and rail machinery, and a software company. My team also now covers the aggregates stocks. I don’t think anyone before has ever covered this mix of companies. This provides us with unique perspectives across the broader supply chain, as well as macro insights into the consumer and industrial economies (both goods and people). With this diverse coverage universe, some of our best calls over the years have been recommending smaller, under-followed stocks within our coverage. Some examples over time include WAB, SAIA, TFII and DSGX.
What’s the worst call you’ve ever made?
In the short term, cyclical headwinds can overcome structural tailwinds, but over time structural winners should prevail. I think our worst call was being late in realizing some of the LTL companies like ODFL were becoming less cyclical and thus bigger structural winners.
How is AI transforming your sector and how you work?
You mean other than using it to write this interview? From a stock standpoint, the market is obviously focused on owning AI winners including the hyperscalers, power companies, data center stocks, etc. So far, that hasn’t included transport stocks. However, the market now appears to be exploring which companies could emerge as AI users — leveraging the technology to drive productivity gains or even revenue growth. In that context, we upgraded CHRW a few months ago based on a compelling argument that truck brokers like CHRW could be among the winners.
At Wolfe Research, we have a core mantra: if you’re doing the same thing today that you were doing five years ago, you’re on the path to irrelevance. That principle has never been more applicable than it is with AI. Analysts that fail to dedicate time and resources to integrating AI into their processes risk falling progressively behind their competitors. Currently, my team is in the middle of a pilot with an agentic AI company to better utilize our data and to make our team workflows more efficient.
How are geopolitical factors impacting your sector?
Over the past six months, tariff headlines have dominated the market narrative. As proxies for trade, transport stocks have generally been viewed as tariff losers. However, as the year has unfolded, we’ve seen far greater volatility in global air and ocean volumes than in domestic rail or truck activity. Importantly, transport companies face no direct cost pressures from tariffs themselves.
Looking back, the transport sector has faced significant price-cost headwinds in recent years with record labor inflation but also record truck price deflation. Looking ahead, we’re increasingly optimistic that price-cost tailwinds could finally re-emerge in 2026, just as many other industries begin to face rising tariff-related costs. With transport stocks now trading at a 15-year relative low versus the S&P 500, perhaps it’s time for the group to start outperforming again?
What surprised you most about this year?
Every year in January, we write a report outlining our top 10 predictions for the year ahead. In our most recent edition, we wrote that with the change in administration and new leadership at the Surface Transportation Board (the primary rail regulator), “we wouldn’t rule out an attempt at rail M&A over the next year.” At the time, we were by no means convinced it would actually happen, yet here we are: UNP is now trying to merge with NSC. This would be a truly transformational deal, creating the nation’s first transcontinental railroad and one of the top five Industrial stocks in the market. If this merger is approved as we anticipate, we would then expect another merger to take place soon thereafter.
From a broader macro standpoint, transport stocks have been significant laggards over the past few years. We entered this year optimistic that a Fed easing cycle, improving ISM trends, and a new administration focused on tax reform and regulatory relief could spark a positive inflection for the group. However, that inflection point for freight activity — and for transport stocks — has continued to get pushed to the right.
Stephen Kim, Evercore ISI
Homebuilders & Building Products
What’s the best call you ever made?
Our Pandemic-era calls were contrarian and correct. On April 2, 2020, in a report called “Finding Housing’s Firewall”, we predicted that home prices would not fall amidst the Pandemic. On September 16th of that same year, in a report called “Housing’s Golden Age”, we predicted that there would be an “explosive rise in home prices”. And from 2022-2024, despite a tripling in mortgage rates, we kept a Buy rating on every homebuilder we covered, predicting that the homebuilding stocks would nevertheless outperform the market.
What’s the worst call you ever made?
In 2006, I underestimated the degree to which housing industry fundamentals would implode in the period that became known as the Great Financial Crisis.
How is AI transforming your sector and how you work?
Thus far, it has not been transformational for my sector or for me. The construction industry has been slow to leverage it, with one or two notable exceptions. I use it for digesting news and finding sources of information quickly, but I still rely far more on my experience and industry relationships. Thus far, I have continued to emphasize the quality and creativity of our written work as a differentiator, although the widespread use of AI summaries may eventually change that.
How are geopolitical factors impacting your sector?
While the direct impacts from tariff and immigration policies have been less significant than initially feared, the indirect impacts on homebuying confidence from these policies have dampened housing demand.
What surprised you most about this year?
The most surprising thing to emerge this year has been the threat of significant government intervention in the homebuilding industry, spearheaded by the FHFA. As this suddenly materialized in early October, we were quick to downgrade the homebuilders, and while the situation is still very fluid, it represents a headwind to investor sentiment in the homebuilding stocks.
