Brazil is gearing up for its presidential election in October of this year and so are its investors—and they are looking to the country’s top sell-side research firms for insights.
Presidential elections are always a big theme in the region, especially more recently as global polarization became more extreme, according to Carlos Sequeira, head of research at BTG Pactual. Brazil is no exception with a lot of investor attention as President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva launches his reelection bid amid challengers that include Flavio Bolsonaro, son former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
“In our view, investors want more than simply tracking polls,” he added. “They need an integrated view combining political analysis, economic implications and finally how companies and sectors are affected. That is precisely what we offer to our clients, an in-depth, knowledgeable analysis of the whole process. “
Amid this backdrop, Brazil has been the positive surprise of the year: strong equity performance despite still-high interest rates, driven by the return of foreign inflows, the gradual start of the easing cycle, and corporate fundamentals that proved more resilient than the macro narrative suggested, according to Thiago Macruz, head of research at Itaú BBA.
“Above all, it's been a market that rewarded stock selection over macro calls—performance was concentrated in energy, financials, and utilities/infrastructure, and in companies with predictable, resilient cash-flow generation,” he said.
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